There are eight relevant business processes in the supply chain:
Customer relationship management.
Customer Service Management.
Demand planning management.
Fulfillment of orders.
Manufacturing flow management.
Sourcing or purchasing.
Product development and marketing.
However, from the viewpoint of the objectives of this course, the one that has the greatest impact on decisions throughout the Supply Chain is Demand Planning Management, also currently called Sales and Operations Planning (S&OP).
The main objective of this business process is to level and synchronise customer needs with the company's supply capabilities. Demand planning must contain the business hypothesis and ensure that available knowledge about trends and events that may impact the past and future of demand is included in the forecast. It is the first link in the planning process and provides the models and tools necessary for the preparation of sales forecasts of a company's products.
In this course the participant will be able to know, besides the necessary steps to carry out this planning, the role of the forecast in the design of the Demand Plan. In a conceptual way, the main tools that exist for the elaboration of the forecasts are described, as well as their advantages and disadvantages. The mathematical demonstration of the forecast formulas is not material of this course, but its practical application is.
At the end of the programme, a series of seven steps is described that can be used to create a Sales and Operations Plan (S&OP). It is not a forecast guide but a suggestion for demand planning activity.
Understand the role of Forecasting in the Demand Planning process and in Supply Chain Management.
Apply theoretical and practical knowledge of forecasting methods and their forms of measurement.
Define the main management indicators of the Demand Planning process.
Understand the concept of Operations and Sales Planning and the main steps to implement it within a company.
The complexity of Forecasting in current business processes.
The Forecast and the Scientific Method.
Analysis of basic statistics (Variance, Standard Deviation and Variation Coefficient) using case study databases.
Uses and applications of Forecast precision measurements (MSE, RMSE, MAPE, WMAPE and MPE).
Methods for forecasting historical data using Excel and ForecastX Wizard for historical data:
a. No seasonality or trend (stationary).
b. With trend and without seasonality (Holt).
c. With trend and seasonality (Winters).
Introduction to cause-effect models.
Single and multi-regression models.
Methods for selecting variables in the planning model.
Decomposition of historical information to improve the forecast.
Applying the expert method to combine forecasting methods.
How to build a demand plan with a proven forecasting structure.
S&OP process overview.
Definition of the main strategic, tactical and operational planning activities of the S&OP.
Format to generate your own Sales and Operations Plan (S&OP) in Excel.